Maximizing Efficiency: The Value of a Dodgeball
Dodgeball is undergoing a tactical evolution. Just as basketball’s 3-point revolution redefined the NBA, mainly initiated by statistical analyses illustrating its superior efficiency, dodgeball teams have been rethinking their strategies regarding single- and multi-ball attacks. This post explores the relative efficiencies of single- and multi-ball attacks, and how these conclusions relate to a recent rule change and important strategic considerations when playing.
From Ball Control to Precision Attacks
When I first entered the international dodgeball scene in 2018, the gameplay style was rather slow and methodical, emphasizing ball control. Teams would gather all their balls in possession before launching targeted, multi-ball attacks on prioritized players, typically focusing on wingers. This method was efficient for securing eliminations but was slow and predictable.
Between 2019 and 2022, many teams shifted toward a more aggressive approach. Instead of gathering balls, they employ faster and less predictable strategies like single-ball attacks, pre-throws, post-throws, counters, and reactive exchanges. The use of such plays increases flexibility and allows teams to disrupt opponents’ rhythm.
Efficiency in Elimination: Single- vs. Multi-Ball Attacks
I analyzed conversion rates for different types of attacks, calculating the average number of eliminated opponents based on the number of balls thrown. Here are the results:
- 1 ball: 0.33 players eliminated per attack
- 2 balls: 0.39 players eliminated per attack
- 3 balls: 0.63 players eliminated per attack
- 4 balls: 0.57 players eliminated per attack (lower than for 3 in this dataset because they tended to be targeted at a single remaining player at the end of the set)
When we break these down by elimination efficiency per ball, single-ball throws are clearly more efficient:
- 1 ball: 0.33 players per ball
- 2 balls: 0.20 players per ball
- 3 balls: 0.21 players per ball
- 4 balls: 0.14 players per ball
These diminishing returns mean that while multi-ball attacks increase the likelihood of hitting a target, they reduce the overall efficiency per ball. Single-ball throws maximize elimination efficiency and allow for better preservation of possession, increasing the chances of accumulating more eliminations over the course of a match.
Strategic Caveats: When Multi-Ball attacks Make Sense
Although single-ball throws are generally more efficient, there are cases where multi-ball attacks remain valuable. This is particularly true when facing an unbalanced opponent team where one or two key players are significantly stronger than the rest. Eliminating a high-value player can have a substantial impact on the opponent’s overall success rate. In other words, although single-ball attacks are more economical for eliminating opponents on a per-possession basis, multi-ball attacks can remove the main threat(s) from opposing teams with a higher probability.
Additionally, not all players have the same throwing skill. The best throwers can achieve close to 50% hit rates, so they lose more when forced into multi-ball attacks (because the hit rates overlap, as two such players will not consistently achieve a 100% conversion rate with 2-ball attacks). Weaker throwers, however, benefit more from multi-ball attacks, which help compensate for lower accuracy and throwing speed.
An adaptive strategy allows teams to leverage their players’ strengths against the opponent’s lineup, tailoring the approach based on thrower skill and target priority. A general strategy that teams can use to expand from may be the following:
Even opposing lineup Uneven opposing lineup
Strong throwers Single-ball attacks Multi-ball attacks
Weak throwers Multi-ball attacks Multi-ball attacks
For strong throwers, single-ball attacks are the better choice, as they are more efficient per ball, while multi-ball attacks can increase the chance of eliminating a key player, which can disrupt the opposing team’s strategy and make them easier to defeat. For weaker throwers, multi-ball attacks may be the best way to, at all, eliminate opponents. As with so many other tactical decisions, the better your technical skills, the wider the arsenal of potential methods at your disposal to win a game.
Impact of a New Rule
In 2024, there was a rule change that, in my opinion, negatively affected dodgeball strategy. Previously, teams with a majority of balls (3, 4, or 5) could throw a single ball within 5 seconds to avoid “play ball,” which otherwise would have forced them to throw all but one ball within another 5 seconds. Under the new rule (which has luckily been inconsistently refereed) teams with 4 or 5 balls must throw 2 or 3 balls, respectively, within 5 seconds to avoid this penalty.
This change restricts teams’ ability to use single-ball throws when holding the majority, as they are now forced to throw multiple balls even in situations where a single-ball approach might be preferable. By reducing flexibility in decision-making, this rule has made gameplay more linear and predictable, as teams with the majority must focus on multi-ball attacks or risk losing possession, paving a return toward pre-2019 dodgeball strategy. The main argument for this rule change has been to eliminate the possibility of a team wasting time by throwing multiple single-ball attacks, in particular when in a set-lead. However, the opponent team that gives away 4-5 balls first do so at a higher conversion rate, which they leverage against the risk of giving away a 4-5 ball possession and time used by the opponent. Not only does this rule force teams to make multi-ball attacks, it also removes the choice for the opponents to leverage multi-ball attacks against time in possession; with the new rule, multi-ball attacks are more profitable as there is no strategic downside to giving away a 4- or 5-ball possession. At least my fingers are crossed that this rule gets revoked as it greatly limits individual offensive decision-making ability.
Conclusion
The shift toward single-ball attacks has introduced a new layer of strategic depth to dodgeball attacking, emphasizing efficiency and flexibility in maximizing eliminations. While multi-ball attacks still have a place, particularly for poor throwers or when facing unbalanced opponents, single-ball throws have the potential of yielding better results. The 2024 rule change poses a challenge by limiting single-ball strategies in majority situations, requiring teams to adapt their approach to this new constraint.
In an upcoming post, I’ll dig into ball usage in relation to individual player hit percentages, looking at when specific players should be given the “green light” to throw based on their throwing skill and elimination potential. Until then, keep strategizing and throwing smart!